James R. (Randy) Udall developed Colorado’s first solar-energy incentive program, the world’s first renewable-energy mitigation program, and some of the most progressive green-power purchasing programs in the country. Udall is cofounder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas–USA and writes from Carbondale, Colorado.

Excerpt:

In Colorado, as in China, the petroleum-fueled automobile and coal-fired
power plant are at the center of the climate challenge. To slow and then halt
global warming will require dramatic changes in how we produce and use
electricity, and equally dramatic changes in how we transport people and
move goods.

In 2007, Colorado governor Bill Ritter asked the state’s electric utilities
to develop a plan to reduce their carbon-dioxide emissions 20 percent
by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050 from their 2005 levels. In response, Holy
Cross Energy, a rural electric utility, studied how it—and the Colorado electric
sector as a whole—could meet those ambitious goals.* Here is a snapshot
of our findings:

• The growth dynamic—the difficulty of running down an up escalator—
complicates efforts to reduce emissions. Cutting greenhouse gases in the
face of increasing demand for electricity will be difficult and potentially
expensive.

• In 2005, coal plants produced 72 percent of Colorado’s power, natural-gas
plants 24 percent, and hydropower, wind, and solar the rest. To meet Governor
Ritter’s 2020 goal, coal use would have to fall by nearly half, while
natural-gas generation would have to nearly double. Carbon-free resources
and efficiency savings would need to provide one-third of the state’s electricity
by 2020, up from 4 percent in 2005.

• Up to 2,700 megawatts of the state’s existing coal generation, out of about 4,900 megawatts operating today, would need to be retired and replaced with combined-cycle natural-gas plants, wind farms, and other lower emitting
generation technologies.

• The statewide price tag for meeting the reduction targets would rise over
time as natural gas replaced coal and new, lower-emitting plants were
built. If electricity consumption grows by 2 percent annually, then by
2020 Coloradans could be spending $1 billion more each year for electric
power, above and beyond normal price escalation.

• If Colorado wants to reduce its carbon footprint, bipartisan leadership will
be crucial. Citizens must be engaged in the discussion, since effective climate
policies can only be crafted with their support, and because they will
have to pay the costs of climate protection.